A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
