Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
